How Oil Prices Are Set

How crude oil is priced: benchmarks, futures contracts, OPEC+, inventories and the dollar explained for beginners.

Benchmarks

Most crude is priced against a benchmark such as Brent or WTI, plus or minus a differential for quality and location.

Futures contracts

Traders buy and sell contracts for delivery in future months. The nearest contract, the front month, sets the price you see in the news. Few contracts are held to physical delivery.

Supply side

OPEC+ production decisions, US shale output, outages and sanctions determine how much crude reaches the market.

Demand side

Economic growth, transport fuel use, industrial activity and refinery runs set how much is needed. Seasonal patterns, such as summer driving, play a role.

Inventories and the dollar

Weekly stock reports show whether supply is exceeding demand. Because oil is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar tends to pressure prices and a weaker one supports them.

Educational content, not investment advice.