Oil Price Forecast & Prediction (Brent): What the Data Shows
Nobody can reliably predict brent crude prices, and we do not try to. This page shows what the historical data says: how brent crude has moved over the past 19 years, where the price stands today against its trend, and what a range of past outcomes would mean in dollars. It is a reference, not advice.
Statistics below use daily closes of the front-month future through 23 Oct 2026.
Where the price stands today
Today the price is above its 200-day average by 22.2% and above its 50-day average by 10.4%. The 14-day RSI is 64, which is conventionally read as neutral (between 30 and 70). These are descriptions of recent momentum, not signals.
Brent Crude price history
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What past 12-month moves would mean in dollars
Across 4,538 rolling 12-month windows since 30 Jul 2007, brent crude ended higher 49% of the time. The table applies the historical percentiles of those 12-month changes to today’s price. It is arithmetic, not a forecast: the future can fall outside this range.
| Historical 12-month change | Change | Implied price |
|---|---|---|
| 10th percentile (weak outcome) | −42.1% | $64.62 |
| 25th percentile | −19.3% | $90.13 |
| Median | −0.4% | $111.20 |
| 75th percentile | +27.2% | $141.99 |
| 90th percentile (strong outcome) | +57.8% | $176.17 |
Simple scenarios
| If the price moves | −20% | −10% | +10% | +20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| It would reach | $89.33 | $100.49 | $122.83 | $133.99 |
Calendar-year performance
Since 30 Jul 2007, brent crude rose in 9 of 18 full calendar years (50%). The median annual change was +1.6% and the average +3.0%. The best year was 2009 (+70.9%) and the worst 2008 (−51.4%).
Seasonality: average change by month
| Month | Average change | Months up |
|---|---|---|
| January | +2.1% | 58% |
| February | +4.2% | 68% |
| March | +1.6% | 63% |
| April | +3.9% | 68% |
| May | +0.8% | 47% |
| June | +1.2% | 63% |
| July | +0.9% | 58% |
| August | −0.9% | 40% |
| September | −0.4% | 45% |
| October | −1.0% | 53% |
| November | −2.9% | 47% |
| December | −0.6% | 53% |
Based on month-end closes. Seasonal averages are historical tendencies with wide variation and are not reliable predictors.
What can move the brent crude price
- OPEC+ policy. Supply targets directly influence Brent, the benchmark for most OPEC exports.
- Shipping and chokepoints. Disruption in key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea can move prices.
- Refining margins and demand in Asia and Europe. Regional refinery demand shapes how much crude is bought.
- Sanctions and trade policy. Restrictions on exporters change where oil flows and at what discount.
Read the latest market analysis, check the live brent crude price or explore year-by-year history.
Frequently asked questions
Will brent crude go up or down?
No one knows. Prices respond to rates, currencies, supply, demand and news that cannot be forecast reliably. This page shows historical statistics so you can see the range of past outcomes.
Are the price targets on this page predictions?
No. The implied prices apply percentiles of past 12-month changes to the current price. They show what similar moves would mean in dollars; they are not targets and carry no probability for the future.
What do the 50-day and 200-day averages show?
They smooth recent closes. Many market participants watch whether the price is above or below them as a gauge of trend, but crossing them does not guarantee what comes next.
Information only, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Methodology.